(AsiaGameHub) – Congressional Democrats have launched a fresh effort to regulate prediction markets, introducing another bill aimed at restricting these contentious platforms.
On Tuesday, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX) unveiled the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. The rollout occurred less than a week after Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) introduced his own legislation, the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026, on March 11.
The bipartisan bill would prohibit betting on government decisions, terrorism, warfare, assassinations, and other occurrences where an individual has prior knowledge of the result or full authority over it.
In the announcement, Murphy stated that “any prediction market where someone knows or controls the outcome is vulnerable to corruption,” while Casar argued these platforms are turning into “another venue for wealthy and influential individuals to profit from confidential information.”
The legislators recognize that many of the targeted event contracts are traded on overseas prediction markets and noted that the bill would also go after payment processors utilized by illegal online operators, along with U.S. individuals who advertise for or assist in operating those enterprises.
BETS OFF Aims at Markets That Legislators Claim Benefit Insider Knowledge
Murphy and Casar contend that the BETS OFF Act is an essential reaction to questionable trading activity on prediction markets preceding significant geopolitical developments.
The legislators cited the suspiciously well-timed wagers made through anonymous accounts just before U.S. military action in Iran and the apprehension of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. They indicated those transactions sparked concerns about whether Trump administration officials or their associates had gained financially from their access to classified information.
The legislation goes beyond merely prohibiting the placement, acceptance, or facilitation of bets on terrorism, assassinations, warfare, government decisions, and other non-financial events where the result is pre-known or manipulated by an individual.
It also establishes new enforcement mechanisms enabling the attorney general to pursue injunctive action against those who breach the proposed statute. Although the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and current CFTC rules already address certain event contracts concerning warfare, terrorism, assassinations, gambling, and illegal activities, the BETS OFF Act would expand those protections.
The bill establishes an independent federal ban, linking the activity to current anti-gambling statutes and barring registered organizations from offering those contracts or enabling their clearing or trading.
Legislators Assert Insider Threats Extend Beyond Military Markets
During a Tuesday press conference discussing the proposed legislation, Murphy and Casar emphasized that the bill isn’t restricted to monitoring foreign policy markets. The legislators used the Super Bowl as an additional example of how confidential information and leaks can create an uneven playing field in prediction markets.
“If you wager on the Super Bowl halftime performer and lose your money to someone who already knew the answer, you’re being cheated,” Casar stated.
Murphy stressed that those who profit from insider information are not “ordinary citizens” but rather the wealthy and well-connected.
“The individuals who know the Super Bowl performer in advance, those who know what the President will say in an address, are extremely influential figures,” he remarked.
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