New Poll Finds Americans More Likely to See Prediction Markets as Betting Than Investing

(AsiaGameHub) –   When questioned regarding prediction markets, the majority of Americans associate them with sportsbooks rather than Wall Street, according to a recent survey commissioned by the American Institute for Boys and Men and carried out by Ipsos.

The findings indicate that 61% of Americans viewed purchasing event contracts on prediction markets as more akin to gambling, while only 8% considered it more similar to investing. Among those acquainted with prediction markets, a vast majority (91%) deemed the purchase of event contracts financially hazardous, with numerous respondents categorizing it alongside cryptocurrency investment and sports wagering in terms of risk.

Despite recent widespread attention on prediction markets and their involvement in notable collaborations, such as Polymarket providing betting odds for the Golden Globes, the survey revealed that public familiarity with these platforms remains limited. Just 21% of participants indicated they were very or somewhat familiar with prediction markets, in contrast to 35% for online sports betting and 42% for cryptocurrency.

This disparity indicates that, although the sector is expanding quickly, it has yet to reach the level of cultural awareness or economic impact seen in the more established gambling and digital asset industries.

Young Men Demonstrate Higher Usage Rates of Prediction Markets

While the survey indicated that overall familiarity with prediction markets was low among Americans, this familiarity was somewhat elevated among young men, with nearly one-third (29%) indicating they were familiar with these platforms.

Young men also demonstrated a significantly higher likelihood of using prediction markets compared to older demographics. Over the past six months, 26% of young men indicated they had used at least one platform for sports betting, daily fantasy, or prediction markets, in contrast to only 14% of the broader population.

Respondents’ motivations for engaging with prediction markets were divided between entertainment and financial gain:

• Entertainment: 50% of users identified entertainment as their primary motivation for participation.
• Financial Gain: 41% indicated they used the platforms mainly to generate profit.

Although the majority of respondents perceive prediction markets as a form of gambling, young men were somewhat less inclined to share this view, with 47% of men aged 18 to 24 considering event contracts more akin to gambling, while 25% regarded them as a hybrid of gambling and investing. In general, individuals in the 18-to-34 age range were less inclined than any other demographic to categorize event contracts as gambling.

Americans Prefer Regulation to Outright Bans

While states such as Arizona are taking steps to restrict or eliminate these platforms, the poll indicates that many Americans prefer regulatory oversight to complete prohibition. The majority of respondents expressed a desire to see prediction markets integrated into current regulatory structures and felt that establishing entirely new frameworks is unnecessary.

• Gambling Model: 59% support regulation akin to online sports betting, which includes age restrictions of 21 and above and state-level governance.
• Financial Model: 52% endorse regulation similar to financial trading, featuring an age minimum of 18 and federal supervision.
• Prohibition: 25% of the overall population thinks making prediction markets unlawful is advisable.

The survey revealed that the majority lacked confidence in prediction markets’ ability to prevent insider trading on their platforms: 39% expressed they were “not at all confident,” and 22% reported being “not too confident.” A mere 2% characterized themselves as very confident, and 7% as somewhat confident, in the platforms’ capacity to prevent individuals from unfairly benefiting from privileged information.

Regarding whether Americans consider prediction markets beneficial to society, a mere 4% responded affirmatively, in contrast to 52% who viewed traditional stock market investing as beneficial to society.