(AsiaGameHub) – A recent survey by Germany’s GGL has provided an in-depth analysis of black market activities. The extensive 132-page report estimates that the gross gaming revenue (GGR) from the black market reached €547 million in 2024, marking a 17% increase from the estimated €466 million recorded in 2023.
Furthermore, the study determined a channelisation rate of 77.03% within the market, indicating that legal or regulated gambling options constitute over three-quarters of the online gambling market.
“The scientifically calculated channeling rate confirms our previous assumptions about the size of the black market,” stated Ronald Benter, CEO of GGL, commenting on the rate. “The results support the fact-based regulatory approach within the framework of the 2021 Interstate Treaty on Gambling.”
Study parameters
The Blockchain Research Lab, commissioned by the joint gambling regulator of Germany’s federal states (GGL), conducted a thorough two-part investigation into Germany’s unlicensed online market.
The study involved a review and assessment of existing methodologies used to measure the size of the black market, acknowledging that such assessments can vary significantly due to these differing methodologies. For this particular study, data was collected through a panel survey of 2,000 individuals who had participated in online gambling (excluding lotteries) within the preceding 12 months.
Respondents identified up to seven gambling platforms they frequented and reported their average stakes and losses per session and per month for each. Researchers classified operators as licensed or unlicensed by consulting the GGL’s whitelist and other sources, with data cleaning and imputation applied as needed. By comparing respondents’ reported spending with licensed market revenue figures, the size of the unlicensed segment was assessed.
The study also examined common methods for measuring illicit online gambling markets, including traffic-based “reference value” methods, behavioral tracking panels, proxy measures (such as tax data or legal enforcement), and player surveys, noting the inherent strengths and weaknesses of each approach.
Licensed and unlicensed platforms at play
The survey recorded a total of 4,027 mentions of gambling operators. Of these, 79.7% were for licensed operators, while 20.3% referred to unlicensed gambling platforms.
Unlicensed platforms accounted for approximately 22.4% of total stakes and 22.97% of player losses within the survey data. Individuals who exclusively used unlicensed platforms reported higher average monthly stakes (€1,425) and losses (€475) compared to those who exclusively used licensed operators, who reported €1,243 in stakes and €358 in losses.
“The average stakes per gaming session differ slightly between the groups, but are not statistically significant,” the report noted. Players who exclusively used unlicensed sites staked an average of €88.96 per session, compared to users of exclusively licensed providers who bet an average of €77.00.
Prominent sports-betting brands such as Tipico, Bwin, Bet-at-home, and Betano were frequently mentioned among licensed market operators. In contrast, the unlicensed market survey highlighted brands like Stake.com, WooCasino, and PlatinCasino.
This study’s publication follows a national gambling survey that revealed 36.4% of respondents had gambled in the past year.
A need to track the market
The report advocated for the implementation of regular, standardized surveys in conjunction with technical monitoring tools. This includes employing machine learning to detect illicit platforms, monitoring transactions, and utilizing blockchain analytics for crypto-enabled gambling.
The authors recommended the use of emerging technical tools, such as machine-learning classifiers for gambling websites, web crawling, payment flow analysis, and blockchain monitoring, as effective supplements for identifying unlicensed operators and opaque payment channels.
Both the authors and the GGL emphasized that these figures should be considered indicative rather than definitive, urging the adoption of repeated surveys and mixed-method monitoring frameworks to enhance future assessments and enforcement strategies.
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