Americans’ growing appetite for betting on anything drove over $200 million in trades on Oscars markets across prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, eclipsing recent awards shows like the Grammys and Golden Globes. The activity even drew participation from actors themselves.
Kevin O’Leary disclosed placing a $1,000 bet on his Marty Supreme co-star Timothee Chalamet for Best Actor on Kalshi, a wager that could have raised insider trading concerns had it succeeded. Ultimately, Michael B. Jordan claimed the prize.
This category proved challenging for traders to predict. Jordan entered the ceremony as the frontrunner with roughly 55% odds, though Chalamet had been given a 78% probability of victory just weeks earlier.
The category also ranked among the most heavily traded, generating more than $25 million in volume on Kalshi and over $13 million on Polymarket.
Markets Accurately Predict 19 of 24 Winners
Following the Golden Globes, where Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan touted the platforms’ success in correctly forecasting 26 of 28 winners, the Oscars saw favorites prevail in 19 of 24 categories.
The most significant surprise came when Sinners captured Best Cinematography, defying market odds that had assigned One Battle After Another an 85% likelihood of winning.
More than $3.7 million was wagered on this market. While all higher-volume markets correctly forecasted outcomes, other notable upsets included:
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls secured Best Animated Short Film despite 21% odds
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin took Best Documentary Feature Film with 25% probability
- One Battle After Another won Best Casting at 15% likelihood
- Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva shared Best Live Action Short Film at just 2% odds
Each of these markets generated under $1 million in trading activity. As with sports wagering, betting exclusively on favorites seldom yields profits. Kalshi enabled users to build parlays across multiple categories, with several traders sharing screenshots of 24-leg losses after backing every market favorite.
Who Will Attend Market Sees High Volume
The market for “Who will attend the Oscars?” attracted over $2.8 million in trades, with Zendaya’s eleventh-hour arrival prompting bets against her presence. Her probability of appearing fell to 49% before she presented the Best Director award.
Traders who bet against her appearance voiced their frustration in market comments. Such markets are particularly vulnerable to insider information—Jeff Bezos‘ stepson allegedly tipped off college classmates about his stepfather’s Super Bowl absence. No similar allegations emerged regarding the Oscars.
The ceremony thus marked a triumph for prediction markets. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara noted on X that such event-based contracts rank among her preferred markets. The substantial trading activity demonstrates how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket can leverage pop culture to draw new participants.